Posts Tagged System Dynamics
Workshop on Model-Based Policy Making at WRI Indonesia
Decision-making and Policymaking require a deep systems analysis to understand the dynamics of the relationship between identified influencing factors. Computer models could help this process by predicting the future results, at the very least. White box models, such as system dynamics, have a graphical representation of connections between variables supporting the group discussions. System dynamics also force the participant to think in longer time dimensions, understand the impact of changing the context, and think in systems, rather than thinking just the components of the problems. In short, policy-making processes based on the design, development, and use of a computer model or Model-Based Policy Making (MBPM) offer different added value.
The idea of MBPM is not focused on the model development process, and this is not a computer modeling workshop. It focuses on using models to gain insight, test the policies and develop a better policy narrative. This is also the focus of the 2-days workshop conducted by SEMS for World Resource Institute Indonesia (WRI Indonesia) on August 15-16.
Port Development in DKI Jakarta: Benefit or Diseconomies?
Posted by systems in Continuous Event Modeling, Knowledge Area, Ports, Logistics and Supply Chain, Research Area, Technical Area on 23/07/2019
By August 2016, The New Priok Port Project or North Kalibaru Terminal began its first phase operation. This project will make DKI Jakarta to have the most adequate port in Indonesia by 2030 (the time of New Priok Project expected to finish). On the other hand, this project also aligns with the vision of the current President of Indonesia, Mr. Joko Widodo, to make Indonesia as the world maritime axis. As a response for this port development and its emerging role for the country, the central government issued the regulation number 3 of 2016 on acceleration of national strategic projects. In this regulation, North Kalibaru Terminal included in national strategic project. This port development project also responds to the fact that there has been no new terminal development in Jakarta in more than 20 years which hopefully. Also, with this terminal hopefully that the current domestic terminal in Tanjung Priok Port can return to its main function as it was used for international cargo as well. Read the rest of this entry »
How Should Indonesia Manage Their Transition to Cleaner Energy Consumption? Reflecting Back
Posted by systems in Clean and Renewable Energy, Continuous Event Modeling, Knowledge Area, News, Research Area, Research Highlights, Technical Area on 29/12/2017
The threat of fossil energy scarcity due to massive usage over the last few years and the harm of fossil energy to the environment has prompted countries to consider energy transition to their alternative energy (cleaner and renewable energy), to keep the balance of their environment system. Including Indonesia, where 60% of their energy consumption since 2000 lean on the fossil energy, especially in oil energy. Indonesia’s oil consumption has been higher than its consumption since 2004, which cause Indonesia’s to import tons of barrel of oil every year. The crisis of Indonesia’s energy consumption rises when in 2008, global oil prices increase rapidly which shaken most of the world’s energy and economic system.
To handle the crisis, Indonesia since 2007 has successfully executed an energy transition program, named “Conversion Program from Kerosene to LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)” which targeted household and small business consumption. The program has managed to increase the LPG consumption and reduce energy subsidies by 197 million rupiahs by 2012. This program is highlighted since Indonesia has not yet considered being successful in executing similar programs, which is the conversion program from petrol to gas fuel for road transportation.
In the future, Indonesia will be facing lot more transition program, to the cleaner and renewable energy, as can be seen on Indonesia energy mix. This indicates the needs to evaluate the successful and the unsuccessful system of the implemented energy transition program in Indonesia.
SEMS aim to explore the government policy structure which believed has a strong role to support or block people adoption on the conversion program of kerosene to LPG. Using System Dynamic Modelling, researchers propose to design a model which describe the system of conversion program and analyze the interactions among variables within the system of the successful conversion program. Furthermore, the analysis of the research also comparing government policy structure between the successful and the unsuccessful program.
The simulation of system dynamic shows that from the sets of policy intervention on the conversion program kerosene to LPG, kerosene supply withdrawal and the government push to increase production capacity of supporting equipment has a huge influence to support the energy transition program. From the comparison between the successful and the unsuccessful conversion program in Indonesia, researchers can indicate some differences. However, the most importance policy intervention in conversion program of kerosene to LPG, kerosene withdrawal and government push to increase production capacity of supporting equipment, has not yet implemented in conversion program from petrol to gas fuel to for road transportation.
This research is conducted by Theresa Devina and Akhmad Hidayatno
2nd Asia-Pacific Region System Dynamics Conference
Posted by systems in Conference, Continuous Event Modeling, Knowledge Area, Lab Development Program, Lean and Green Operations, News, Research Area, Technical Area on 24/02/2017
The 2nd Asia-Pacific Region System Dynamics Conference of the System Dynamics Society were held at UTown, National University of Singapore. The theme for this conference is Charting a Path to a Humane and Sustainable Future: Asia’s Leadership Role. The conference brought together various disciplines that have been using Systems Thinking, System Dynamics and Systems Engineering approach in understanding and solving problems. The conference seeks to popularize and extend systems thinking and System Dynamics modelling in the Asia-Pacific Region by facilitating interactions between practitioners from the region and around the world, introducing newcomers to the field, and keeping practitioners aware of current developments.
It brought together so many practitioners in the regions, including group of Indonesian SD practitioners. We hope that in the future, we could establish an Indonesia Chapter of System Dynamics, since currently Indonesia falls into the Australasian Chapters and newly established ASEAN Chapter.
SEMS Lab presented 2 papers in this event that falls in the strategy group of papers.
These are the excerpt of the papers presented by SEMS Lab
1. System Dynamics Approach in Managing Turnover Problem in Profesional Service Firms
Authors: Arry Destyanto, Armand Moeis, Akhmad Hidayatno, Mohammad Rizky Nur Iman
Talented human resources is one of the key factors in a firm’s success to maintain its competitive advantage in the global era. The rising trend of turnover is causing firms to rethink their strategy in maintaining their talented human resource. This issue challenges firms especially that rely on talented human resource such as professional service firms. Turnover has direct and indirect negative impact for firms. Previous researches had been conducted research to understand the underlying problem that causes turnover, and the strategy to overcome it. This research calls for a modeling structure of the turnover phenomena using a system dynamics approach, which can also be used to simulate various strategy. The output of the model is a recommendation of strategy that is most effective and has the best return on investment for organization. The results of simulation study will be discussed at the end of the paper.
2. Scenario Planning using System Dynamics for Reducing Uncertainty on Managing Employee Turnover
Authors: Akhmad Hidayatno, Arry Destyanto, Armand Moeis, Mohammad Rizky Nur Iman
In order to maintain the competitiveness of an organization in the global competition era, the presence of qualified human resources has become one of the key factors. Unlike product quality, qualified human resources have the capacity and talents that are not easy to replicate. Therefore, researchers and practitioners have been looking for the best strategy to manage turnover in an organization. However, the problem with turnover is that it has become more dynamic and changes along time, causing for uncertainties in the impact of the strategy implemented. This research will show how ‘scenario planning’ is used in a system dynamics model to minimize the level of uncertainties. The scenarios generated are not limited to the changes in assumptions, but also includes alternatives of trends that may happen in the future (plausible scenario). This paper focuses on discussing the process of generating and testing the plausible scenarios to the model. The implication of the scenarios is also compared to the initial output of the model.
Introductory SD Workshop on Modeling Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Development
SEMS in collaboration with PT Makara Mas (Holding Company of Universitas Indonesia) conducted an introductory system dynamics workshop on modeling sustainable development for Fiscal Policy Agency – Ministry of Finance, Government of Indonesia. The workshop was part of Low Carbon Support, provided by the United Kingdom (UK) for the Ministry of Finance, especially the Centre for Climate Change Financing and Multilateral Policy (PKPPIM) in the Fiscal Policy Agency. PKPPIM are tasked to recommend a low carbon fiscal policies especially starting from the national budget 2015. This is why they needed a more integrated modeling tool to be able to evaluate green fiscal policy impacts.
FPA has already a strong group of economic models that are based on IO Models, SAM, and CGE, however since the questions of green policy is multi-dimensions with multi-sectoral approach, they feel that they need to have a more adaptive model to answer these questions.
The workshop was conducted for 5 days in the 2nd week of February, ranging from the basics of systems thinking and system dynamics, group dynamics, simple model building and closed by discussion on future models development of a new “green fiscal policy” model.
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