Archive for category Financial Modeling

Learning Strategic Sourcing Management through Serious simulation Game

Why bother with uninteresting hours of classroom session, when you can play a game and learn more?

high-bay-408222_960_720Despite the importance of its functionality, research shows that many of the world procurement and purchasing specialist around the world are still having trouble in developing and implementing an effective strategy towards sourcing, according to KMPG International report (2012). Some still perceive the approach in sourcing is to find the lowest cost and ignores the true potential of sourcing.

In the globalization era, the challenge in sourcing has been more complex than before and will continue to rise. Sourcing researcher, Kate Vitasek and alongside many others state that you should view sourcing as a business model with the goal to maximize value. Sourcing is not just merely obtaining products or services at the lowest price, but to obtain them at the right price. By choosing the right business model for your sourcing situation, you can  harness the true potential value sourcing.

Unfortunately, the concept of sourcing model is not yet widely recognized. Although many firms may have or are implementing some of them, the basic knowledge of the sourcing business model development process is still a problem to many sourcing professionals. In order to help the professionals to gain a better understanding of sourcing business model development process, a serious simulation game is presented as a solution.

Serious simulation game has been used in many pedagogical purposes throughout different fields such as supply chain management, business simulation, medical and military. The gaming environment creates an immersive learning medium and therefore is able to improve the learning process of its participants.

By developing a serious simulation game in form of a board game, participants are able to learn the key concepts of sourcing business models and the different impact of each models. Before the game participants can have the chance to develop and choose the best sourcing business model for the situation. The benefit of playing a game is that  participants can know whether they have chosen the right sourcing model.

The game presented in this research proves another example of a pedagogical use of a serious simulation game. Serious simulation game is seen as a suitable learning medium especially for the millennials. The immersive value offered by gaming help learner to stay focus. When learner are involved in the system, there is a better chance that they can understand and remember better. This is also an example of an experiential learning method, where learner can improve their mental models to make better decisions by learning through simulation.

Rizman, Arry, AkhmadThe serious simulation game presented, is developed through the game development guideline set by Richard D. Duke and his colleagues. Keeping in mind that the game must balance the realm of meaning, reality and play as suggested by Casper Hartevald in his “Triadic Game Design” book. The design process also look upon the examples of existing serious simulation game. A group of students from Universitas Indonesia were called as participant respondents of the game. Through the testing of the game, we learn how the game has helped the participants gaining better understanding of the subject.

In conclusion, we have seen how a serious simulation game can help learner to understand complex system which requires an effective learning medium. The game can be used as a learning medium alternatives for professionals and students. By improving their understanding of the system, hopefully they can put the knowledge into practice and solve issues surrounding sourcing strategy.

This research is conducted by M. Rizky Nur Iman, Arry Rahmawan and Akhmad Hidayatno

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Is Indonesia Ready for New Technology in Reducing CO2 Emission?

smoke-654072_960_720Green house gases (GHG) emission is one of the environmental issues that hasn’t been resolved and continued to increase annually. Carbon dioxide gas is known as the largest contributor for GHG emissions. This environmental issue also happens in Indonesia as a developing country which has focused on sustainable development. In 2020, the total emission of carbon dioxide gas in Indonesia is predicted around 960 million ton if there is no mitigation action.

Developed and developing countries are still looking for the effective technology to answer the emission issue. The carbon dioxide gas emission has to be reduced because if there is no immediate action, the impact is not only effected to the amount of emission itself in air but also to the health issue on human. If the air is heavily contaminated, people who live on that environment will get a health problem.

In the last fifteen years, researchers who focus on cleaner energy are looking for the effective technology which can lower the level of the CO2 emission. Developed countries have landed their first step to mitigate their emission of CO2 gas by using Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Technology. This kind of technology could effectively reduce the amount of CO2 emission in large-scale.

Indonesia is aware to the carbon dioxide gas emission issue. There are a few technologies that have been  used to reduce the emission, such as: using the alternative energy which produce cleaner emission than CO2, using a cleaner technology (in transportation), reducing the use of fossil fuel, etc. Carbon capture and storage technology is still new in Indonesia, and there is no enough information and study on it. The researcher in Universitas Indonesia (majoring Industrial Engineering) helps to find the answer to this new technology. Is Indonesia ready for new technology?

The increment of carbon dioxide gas emission keeps increasing annually. Globally, there is a significant difference in incremental of the emission. From 1970 to 2000, the rise of the emission was only 1,3% per year but, from 2000 to 2010, the escalation reaches to 2,2% per year. These circumstances stand on the entire world because the human needs to make a better economy. To fulfill the better economy and life, humans aren’t satisfied. Every single days, there will be a new need from every single human. On that reason, industries grow wild and keep rising every year. Doing their activities, industries occur any kind of emission included the carbon dioxide gas emission, so the increment of carbon dioxide gas emission increases annually.

In developed countries, they have a bold step to mitigate their emission of CO2 gas by using Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technology. A post-graduate student from Universitas Indonesia sees the gap in Indonesia. The study and information about CCS, as a new technology to reduce emission, haven’t well developed in Indonesia. Based on the situation, the student tries to do a research of CCS technology implementation in Indonesia using technology assessment method. He spent six months in doing the research in Indonesia.

The objective of the research is to find the criterias and subcriterias for the implementation of carbon capture technology with an adjustment of Indonesia’s condition. Because there is no enough information about the criteria in implementing carbon capture technology, this research could be the opening project for the further research in Indonesia. Through this study, we will seek what the subcriterias are needed to be fulfilled. It will be divided into two main criterias based on economy and environment, and the other supporting criterias are performance and technology innovation.

Data-data on the research used primary and secondary data,. Focus group discussion (FGD) and questionnaire are the main primary data, meanwhile, references from literatures are the secondary data. FGD and questionnaire involved some experts to give their perspectives on this research so the results will be various.

The results suggest the subcriterias that are important in using CCS technology are: the rate of capturing CO2 emission from its technology (for environment criteria) and investment cost of the technology (economy criteria).

The investment cost for the carbon capture technology is big enough, so the implementation itself needs support from the government and other investors. Although there are some challenges in implementing the carbon capture technology, the potential to implement the technology is opened. Indonesia has a big sources for the CO2 emission because there are still many industries using fossil fuel. If the technology applied, it could be a benefit for Indonesia in supporting the sustainable development aligned with the statement (of the government) on reducing CO2 emsision.

This research still needs to be improved, but the results as opening project are promising. Hopefully, there will be other futher  research developed on this field.

This research is conducted by Reinaldo Giovanni and Akhmad Hidayatno

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Can University Hospital in Indonesia survived in achieving balanced of quality public health service and medical education?

University of Indonesia plays an important role in developing the national health care system by contributing qualified health professionals nationally and internationally. In order to prepare future professional doctors, educators, researchers, and other human resources in medicine and health fields, University of Indonesia is constructing a new education hospital to compliment the overcrowded Cipto Mangunkusumo National Hospital.

RSUI

What actually they should realize is that the hospital is the healthcare facility which operated 24 hours a day, high operational and maintenance cost has become the serious concern to the organization, and this organization should operate independently without the subsidy over the several years. Stakeholders will find a gap between operational cost and the government fundings, and the question is how wide are the gaps and who will cover those gaps?

SEMS, using business and financial modeling, help to obtain a clearer picture of the challenges ahead in managing and operating the new hospital. Using the combination of Activity Based Costing (ABC) and using Process Modeling, we map out the cost drivers structures and put this into simulated balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow. These financial calculations helps us to explain the possible outcomes that could jeoperdize the operations of the new hospital.

This research is conducted by Monica Priscilla, Gamma Rizkina Akbar, Aziiz Sutrisno and Akhmad Hidayatno

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Transfering the Complex Knowledge of Supply Chain Management through Serious Simulation Games

“A game could makes you forget that you are actually learning. Packaging a very complicated and
complex reality in to a simple learning tool is what Serious Simulation Game designed for.”

Have you ever thought about how your soft drinks, or your lotion, could arrive in the shelf even before you need it? That effort to make sure you get what you want when you step into the store is called Supply Chain Management (SCM). SCM is indeed important not only for customers, but also for the company. Every company tries to manage its supply chain efficiently and effectively, as SCM alone costs 30% – 70% of the total of production cost. However, managing a supply chain is not an easy job to do.

SCM GAME - Intro
Andersson and Wemner, through their article in 2008, even stated that many SCM practitioners have difficulties in making the right decision. This fact triggers other urgency: to find talents who understand SCM and able to make the right decision. To gain better knowledge about making decision in SCM, some researches have proven that traditional classroom teaching method might not be the best. Experiential learning, just like its name, provides you a learning method by experiencing the reality, which is an effective way to learn how to make a decision. One of its most effective media is Serious Simulation Game (SSG). To simply put, SSG is an entertaining game with non-entertaining purpose. However, there are still a very limited number of researches on the SSG about the whole supply chain.

H2Game SCM 1

In order to enhance the knowledge of SCM, especially for students, SEMS researchers have created a SSG named H2! Supply Chain Management Game. This game helps players to improve their ability in decision making, and also their skills in analyzing report and teamwork. H2! Supply Chain Management Game is played by 4 players per team, where there will be 4 teams competing against each other. The SSG was designed using a Spreadsheet Applications as its basis. It was then tested two times, Prototype 1 and Prototype 2. To deliver the learning points of the game well, this SSG was played in 4 phases. It consists of Briefing, Playing, Debriefing, and Evaluation.

The result of the evaluation phase shows that H2! Supply Chain Management Game can be used to deepen the knowledge of the players. It also helps players to understand supply chain’s important elements which improve their ability in analyzing data and making right decisions.

This research is conducted by Rachel Giovanni Hasibuab, Maya Hashilah, Arry Rahmawan and Akhmad Hidayatno

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SEMS Research Highlights 2015: Enabling the Adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles – An Approach to Refueling Station Spatial Placements

Refueling station accessibility for more cleaner and greener energy is one of the most important factors in the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles.

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Image Courtesy of Radar Pena

If the refueling station is not strategically located, people will be hesitant to adopt the new alternative fuel (such as gas, hydrogen or other type of alternative fuel).
Due to the importance of locations,  researcher in System Engineering, Modeling, and Simulation lab of Universitas Indonesia develop an operations research-based spatial-model to determine ideal refueling station locations. Early results has delivered a whopping gain up to 96% demand coverage, while at same time maintained profitability in each individual location.

The model was develop in three stages: demand mapping, spatial simulation and financial screening.

First stage is determining how many refueling stations are needed to cover potential demand within the scope. This is done through a series of calculations: total vehicles converted are multiplied by each vehicle’s fuel demand, subtracted by the amount of existing alternative fuel supply (if some refueling stations already exist), and then divided by an individual station’s capacity. Through these calculations, a number of stations needed to be built can be obtained.

In the second stage, multiple variables are used as input to reflect real-world conditions in a geographic information system-based spatial model. These variables include spatial data, such as the locations of distributed potential demand, already-existing alternative refueling stations, and candidate locations to build the new refueling stations, as well as non-spatial data, like the daily capacity of each refueling station and the maximum distance car owners are willing to travel to reach a station. The model then uses a location-allocation technique—the ‘maximize capacitated coverage’ approach—to determine the ideal locations for every refueling stations. These locations cover the most demand possible while subjecting to the capacity of individual stations.

The final stage is financial screening of the chosen locations. Three economic metrics are used to determine profitability: the NPV, IRR, and payback period. The demand in each location chosen, obtained through the spatial model, is entered into a simple financial model of a refueling station’s operations to reveal the three economic metrics. Afterwards, a final analysis is conducted to determine other alternatives to reach demand points not yet covered, or to replace unprofitable locations.

In this study, the researchers focused on the adoption of natural gas vehicles by public transportation fleets in DKI Jakarta, as the case study. There were four scenarios used, based primarily on the types of candidate locations (to simulate ease of implementation) and the simulated traffic conditions. The resulting locations show a range of 79-96% coverage, with the lower numbers found in traffic jam scenarios. To boost coverage and replace unprofitable locations, there were 2 possible alternatives: constructing stand-alone refueling stations (not constrained by candidate locations) and deploying mobile refueling units (MRUs).

This work has implications for various types of alternative fuel vehicles, not just limited to natural gas. Refueling stations are capital-heavy infrastructures regardless of fuel type, especially for new, still growing vehicle types. The approach used is replicate-able and adjustable for other situations to improve the adoption process.

This research was conducted by Aziiz Sutrisno, Akhmad Hidayatno, Dio Aufa Handoyo, Eka Nugraha Putra

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