Archive for category Clean and Renewable Energy

Can Biodiesel Industry achieve its target by 2025: an Agent Based Model Exploration

“Change is easy to purpose, hard to implement and especially hard to sustain”

-Andy Hargreaves

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As we know, biodiesel or Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (FAME) is one type of biofuel produced as a substitution of diesel fuel. In Indonesia, biodiesel is produced using crude palm oil by trans-esterification process. The usage of crude palm oil is performed because it sees that Indonesia is a nation with the biggest yield of crude palm oil in the Earth. In summation to the potential of its natural resources, the role of biodiesel as a substitute of diesel fuel is caused because it considers the benefits generated by biodiesel itself. Benefits include the so-called “carbon neutral”, the fuel produced biodiesel does not raise the output of carbon dioxide (CO2). The issue occurs because when the oil crop grows, it absorbs CO2 at the same amount as releasing fuel. In addition, biodiesel has biodegradable compounds that are firm and completely non-toxic, having in mind that biodiesel spills have less risk than diesel fuel. Biodiesel also has a higher flash point than diesel fuel, can be determined from its higher cetane value (> 57) than diesel fuel.

Still, the condition of biodiesel production in Indonesia faces complex problems. The concentration of biodiesel has never been fully attained, with the concentration of non-subsidized biodiesel that has not been carried out optimally. There are four major problems facing biodiesel production. Firstly, the concentration of biodiesel production is not maximal, especially in non-subsidized biodiesel production. Second, the condition of Indonesia’s domestic biodiesel production that began to decline from 2014 to 2015 due to lower oil costs. Tierce, the number of business entities that are abundant, but relatively small to fulfill the objective of production capability in 2025 amounted to 10.22 million KL. And the last and most important is the increasing CPO price, condition that causes the Biodiesel Market Index Price to be less frugal. This problem becomes the consideration of the biodiesel industry to continue to sell its biodiesel in Indonesia.

To avoid such problems, agent-based modeling can be used to predict the impact of policies on influential actors to gain a deep understanding of the behavior and decisions made by the biodiesel industry by looking at the types of biodiesel industry in Indonesia that are differentiated by the type of production capacity that can be handled by the biodiesel industry, decision-making that depends on the type of industry, how the biodiesel industry calculates the expenditure and income as well as the learning gained by the biodiesel industry after large-scale production. This agent-based modeling is done with two policy alternatives, namely price determination of biodiesel market index and subsidy of installed capacity of the biodiesel plant.

The results obtained from this agent-based modeling show that the policy of adding the biodiesel plant installed capacity has a good impact in increasing the fulfillment of biodiesel production, the adoption and competition that occurs in the tender, and the profits gained by the biodiesel industry. Even so, the government should count the costs to be incurred and the net income from biodiesel industry, so the biodiesel production targets can be successfully accomplished.

This research is conducted by Vicky Larasvasti Respati and Akhmad Hidayatno

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How Should Indonesia Manage Their Transition to Cleaner Energy Consumption? Reflecting Back

flame-871136_640The threat of fossil energy scarcity due to massive usage over the last few years and the harm of fossil energy to the environment has prompted countries to consider energy transition to their alternative energy (cleaner and renewable energy), to keep the balance of their environment system. Including Indonesia, where 60% of their energy consumption since 2000 lean on the fossil energy, especially in oil energy. Indonesia’s oil consumption has been higher than its consumption since 2004, which cause Indonesia’s to import tons of barrel of oil every year. The crisis of Indonesia’s energy consumption rises when in 2008, global oil prices increase rapidly which shaken most of the world’s energy and economic system.

To handle the crisis, Indonesia since 2007 has successfully executed an energy transition program, named “Conversion Program from Kerosene to LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)” which targeted household and small business consumption. The program has managed to increase the LPG consumption and reduce energy subsidies by 197 million rupiahs by 2012. This program is highlighted since Indonesia has not yet considered being successful in executing similar programs, which is the conversion program from petrol to gas fuel for road transportation.

In the future, Indonesia will be facing lot more transition program, to the cleaner and renewable energy, as can be seen on Indonesia energy mix. This indicates the needs to evaluate the successful and the unsuccessful system of the implemented energy transition program in Indonesia.

SEMS aim to explore the government policy structure which believed has a strong role to support or block people adoption on the conversion program of kerosene to LPG. Using System Dynamic Modelling, researchers propose to design a model which describe the system of conversion program and analyze the interactions among variables within the system of the successful conversion program. Furthermore, the analysis of the research also comparing government policy structure between the successful and the unsuccessful program.

The simulation of system dynamic shows that from the sets of policy intervention on the conversion program kerosene to LPG, kerosene supply withdrawal and the government push to increase production capacity of supporting equipment has a huge influence to support the energy transition program. From the comparison between the successful and the unsuccessful conversion program in Indonesia, researchers can indicate some differences. However, the most importance policy intervention in conversion program of kerosene to LPG, kerosene withdrawal and government push to increase production capacity of supporting equipment, has not yet implemented in conversion program from petrol to gas fuel to for road transportation.

This research is conducted by Theresa Devina and Akhmad Hidayatno

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Educating society about energy transition through excitement of a game? Why not!

Transergy WelcomeThe increase of energy consumption especially in the form of oil is being an issue for certain countries including Indonesia. Within the rise of 3.99% of energy consumption annually, transportation sector having the largest portion of energy consumption (Indonesia Outlook Energy, 2016). There are 17.523.967 vehicles in Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, with 74.66% of the numbers are motorbikes and 18.64% are cars. The use of oil in most land transportation vehicles has lead oil to be the most used fuel by the market share of 32% compared to other type of fuel. Unfortunately, the oil production in Indonesia has been constantly decreased within 4.41% per year. It leads Indonesia to be the net importer of oil and depending on the oil supply by other countries. The condition of being net importer of oil having many effects of short and long run in Indonesia’s economic. Vacation Menuthe respond to the increase of oil consumption, the government releasing an energy diversification program to reduce oil consumption by substitute the oil to other type of fuel like gas, biofuel, renewable energy and many others. One of the diversification plan is the conversion of oil to natural gas program. This program has been conducted since 1987, however until 2011 it only achieved 0.03% conversion rate. Based on the study from Bureau of Oil and Gas, one of the success key for conversion from oil to gas program is through education and socialization to the society. Conversion from oil to gas is a kind of energy transition which is defined by Chappin (2011) as the socio-technical transition in the scale of sector. To do the simulation about energy transition physical and social components from the energy transition system needs to be captured.

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SEMS Research Highlights 2015: A New Strategy Development Model to Support FLNG Implementation in Indonesia


Floating Liquefied Natural Gas (FLNG), a relatively new technology in LNG industry, appears as billion dollars attraction to uncover the massive proportion of stranded natural gas reserves. Apparently, one-third of the gas reserves in the world are located in offshore, which in many cases considered to be stranded. As the growing interest to exploit and trade all available gas reserves along with the opportunity to build the offshore LNG facilities, the FLNG gives an ideal solution. FLNG is a natural gas liquefaction and storage system which is placed directly above the gas source using technology that is installed in a ship. The entire value chain of the FLNG will be shorter than the LNG supply chain in general, since it omits the transportation of natural gas via pipeline to onshore plants.

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Prelude FLNG Source:http://astorship.com/en/world-largests-prelude-flng-is-the-worlds-first-floating-liquefied-natural-gas-platform/

Despite its huge positive potential impacts offered, FLNG construction in Indonesia comprises number of risks and opportunities. One of major risks in the preparation to implement FLNG technology in Indonesia is how to meet the requirements of the local content percentage. In 2013, Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy enacted a regulation of minimum local content for equipment used in the energy industry. However, the current state of local industry capacity still requires significant new development in terms of technical, engineering, and security.

A coordinated effort between relevant actors to develop the industry of FLNG development, especially for the topside structure, is also in-line with the new focus of the Government on Maritime Sector Development. Therefore, a proper multi-actor roadmap is needed to address the complexity as well as ensuring that the overall strategies can be fully understood and well implemented by all relevant parties. This would allow the government to minimize the risk of delays in the implementation and achievement of the targets.

Technology Roadmapping is a method that has been used extensively to support the development of certain types of technology. Since this research took an industrial development for FLNG implementation as a focus of the study, the roadmap is considered appropriate because it has been widely used as a planning tool in some ministries in Indonesia. However, there is a saying that goes “planning without action is futile, action without planning is fatal”. We found that a roadmap is not enough to become a planning tool for the project in this type and scale.

We proposed the integration of Technology Roadmapping and Hoshin Kanri Strategic Deployment Management. Both methods have a similarity in the importance of interactions between stakeholders to support the development and deployment of strategies and policies. Hoshin kanri is incorporated in the roadmap making to provide a clear accountability arrangement and review of the strategies with the existence of clear documentation from planning to review stage.

The proposed integration model comprises four stages process including planning, visioning, strategy and roadmap development, as well as implementation and review. In the end, the planning process would produce two main outputs that become guides in the implementation of strategies. First, a roadmap that describe the strategic plan required at a certain time period. Second, an x-matrix that translates those strategies into tactics and detailed process to achieve each result or target.

This research has managed to find a novel approach to the development of the strategy, which is conducted by integrating the approach of Technology Roadmapping and Hoshin Kanri method and serves them as a strategic planning tool. We are integrating both methods to make a more detail strategy plan that includes strategy development, deployment to all parties, and a system of periodic reviews. To this extent, the research is believed could provide a novel implication by integrating the strengths of the two methods to provide the strategic framework for industrial development in the national sector.

This research is conducted by Akhmad Hidayatno, Aziiz Sutrisno, and Wulan Maulidiah

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Introductory SD Workshop on Modeling Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Development

SEMS in collaboration with PT Makara Mas (Holding Company of Universitas Indonesia) conducted an introductory system dynamics workshop on modeling sustainable development for Fiscal Policy Agency – Ministry of Finance, Government of Indonesia. The workshop was part of Low Carbon Support, provided by the United Kingdom (UK) for the Ministry of Finance, especially the Centre for Climate Change Financing and Multilateral Policy (PKPPIM) in the Fiscal Policy Agency. PKPPIM are tasked to recommend a low carbon fiscal policies especially starting from the national budget 2015. This is why they needed a more integrated modeling tool to be able to evaluate green fiscal policy impacts.

FPA has already a strong group of economic models that are based on IO Models, SAM, and CGE, however since the questions of green policy is multi-dimensions with multi-sectoral approach, they feel that they need to have a more adaptive model to answer these questions.

The workshop was conducted for 5 days in the 2nd week of February, ranging from the basics of systems thinking and system dynamics, group dynamics, simple model building and closed by discussion on future models development of a new “green fiscal policy” model.

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